How to Select a Stock in India for Investment?

Stocks are not easy to buy. Whenever you are convinced that equity is a class with the most returns, the moment the worry starts. And the main cause of worry is how to invest in stock market in India?

How to Select a Stock in India for Investment?

This article endeavors to find ways of investing into shares. It will try to answer the very basic questions that how one should fix which company’s shares he should buy. Also suggested are some of the analysis that one should be doing before taking a decision to buy or sell a stock.

Read- Role of FIIs in Indian Stock Markets

The Steps How to Select a Stock in India-

1)      Analyzing Stock

2)      Momentum Tracking

Analyzing Stock

So today, India looses the first test on South African Tours by 25 runs and an inning. The team with record-holding players and a team who is a probable winner in the forthcoming World Cup lost so badly. Although winning and loosing is a part of the game but easily one who is a follower can identify the main reason was the team could not get a hand on to the bouncy wickets. They arrived in South Africa just a couple of days ago and did not play any practice match and were straight away into business. In investment decisions also needs to do the homework. You need to analyze the track and do some basic research. This analysis can be done in two ways:

Bottom-up Analysis: it consists of analyzing the individual company. First, you identify a potential company and then do fundamental research of this stock. You check the earnings, there consistency, cash flow, growth prospectus, reviews of the balance sheet, and P&L account. The aim of this research is to discover the value hidden in the stock of the stock. If a stock at 100 is still trading at 100 a year after even though reporting an earning rise of 30 percent means that the stock has value which is still to be unlocked.

Check – How and why stocks-price-change

Top-down Analysis: Here the analyst targets trends of a sector or an industry. For eg we all can sense that there is a lot of thrust on the agricultural sector. Even the government is encouraging the agri-industry hence it opens an idea that agricultural and allied industry can be expected to grow in coming years. Once you zeroed down a sector you try to get the leading players or the companies in this sector. After this, the basic checks as mentioned in the bottom-up analysis should be done.

In analysis, one should always keep this thing in mind that: A brilliant analysis done on the wrong stock would not give you a brilliant result. So, if you are a beginner, start with big names, for instance, start doing this analysis for companies figuring in BSE 100 index.

Read More about Stock – How and why the stock price change

Momentum Tracking

The market is a very busy and happening place. It runs on information. Good news or bad news can change the stock price without considering a strong positively analyzed stock. So tracking the market momentum is very important. The change in the price of a share is guided by a basic principle which says that- All assets which are attracting money will keep on getting money till they get expensive (overbought) and assets which lose price will keep on loosing till they bottom out (oversold).

Hence momentum also plays a very important role. Retail investors can catch the momentum in by leaning to note the RATE OF CHANGE. It is a very simple technical indicator that provides information regarding changes in the price of a stock in given period. It can be expressed as a simple price-difference figure, or as a percentage-change figure. The rate of Change indicator can be positive, negative, or zero.

Also Read: 10 Investment mistakes to Avoid

To obtain the Rate of Change indicator as a percentage, the following calculation is used:

ROC= ((today’s closing price – closing price at [period number of days ago]) ÷ closing price at [period number of days ago]) x 100

The stock with positive and high ROC means they are attracting money and a low or negative ROC means the stock is not getting enough money. After tracking the ROC, one should invest in the stock. ROC is one of the measures that technical analysts use although they have software to track this on any time frame. For us, we just need to see that we are investing in a market active stock and not a dull stock.

I hope these two small measures will help you buying or selling the shares. In the end I am not advising just sharing small learning.

I would prefer to buy:

Strong stock in the strong sector rather than buying a strong stock in a weak sector and will never buy a weak stock in a weak market.

This article is written by guest author Madhupam Krishna. A Post Graduate in Finance, currently he heads the sales function for Rajasthan for Principal PNB Mutual Fund.

Disclaimer: This post represents the opinion of its authdor only, and does not necessarily reflect the opinions of the author’s employer, The Financial Literates or the other authors who write content for this Website.

Why Financial Planning for Defense Personnel is Important?

I was always fascinated by defense personnel’s life – their style, attitude & discipline always inspired me. The reason was not that the “Girls like the men in uniform”, but I was always surrounded by them. My father was an Army man, my grandfather had also retired as Major General & my uncle is still serving the nation. Last week I met my uncle – I told him that “It was always my dream to join the army & save people’s lives”. His reply was “What you are doing these days is equal to that”, I screamed “HOW??” He said “You are saving people’s financial life, which is equally important.” I really felt good & thought of writing something for Defense personnel, which can help them to plan their financial life better.

When I started my career in one of the largest Personal Finance Companies, my supervisor always persuaded me to get more army customers because of my background. In fact, if an agent has army clients, he was given more respect and was thought to be well established. Later on when I got the understanding of sales, then I came to know that the simple reason was Defense Personnel were very easy targets of mis-selling and since they had very little understanding, agents and distributor milked them for what they were worth. Like every individual, they also need Financial Planning and also needs to take care of his finances. The very aim of writing this piece is to convey that the outside world is ready to sell you all that you do not require with no proper understanding of your requirements. Beware!

But before going further, let’s understand financial planning in simplified language. “Financial Planning is the process of meeting your life goals through the proper management of your finance.” Finance doesn’t mean just investment it also includes your liabilities, your cash flow, your insurance, etc. Financial Planning will answer three important questions:

  • What are your financial goals?
  • Where you are today in relation to your goals?
  • How will you get from where you are today to your goals?

ReadImportance of Financial Planning

Now let’s try to understand basic components of financial planning, from a defense personnel’s financial life:

A. Retirement Planning – It is one of the most important goals for everyone but in current scenario it is even more so due to – society moving towards nuclear family system, higher inflation & medical cost, changes in lifestyle etc. Defense personal are bit lucky as they get family pension on retirement; but there is one negative thing attached with this – pension keeps people in illusion that pension will be sufficient for them to have a comfortable retirement. But they forget that pension will be close to half of their income and few of these expenses that are currently borne by the exchequer, are not available after retirement. To cover the expenses, they should check what will be there monthly requirement after retirement & how much of it will be covered by pension. After this they should calculate the corpus required at retirement, to understand the deficits that might be there. From the total required corpus they should reduce the lump-sums that they will receive. So now they have a target amount – for this they have to start investments.

B. Cash Flow Management – Cash flow includes your income, expense & investment. Managing finances can become difficult due to transferable job. If proper attention is not given to documentation & maintenance of proper bank accounts, it can result in skipping of EMI & premiums, which have negative consequences. Defense personnel should always keep 2 separate saving accounts – one for salary & basic expenses and another special account for investment, loan EMI & insurance premiums. They should open this special account where they can get payable at par cheque book, ECS facility & online banking. They should maintain this account throughout their life – every month they should transfer the required amount to this account. They can also create an emergency fund equal to 3 months expenses, in this account.

C. Investment Planning – What’s your formula? Income – Expense = Investment or Income – Investment = Expense.  Second formula will lead to financial success. Investment should be done in goals and not products. One of the basic long term goals is child education & marriage – they should find how much they require in future & find out the monthly contribution for that. Buying home can be a goal; but as they keep moving from one place to another, they should buy it at a place where they want to finally settle down. As they can’t keep an eye on their property on regular basis they should only buy properties which are approved by local authorities & papers are clean.

D. Insurance – There is nothing in this world that can fill up the social vacuum that gets created if one is not there, but there are other issues like financial loss which can be recovered through insurance. There is some provision of family pension & some insurance on death of defense person but that’s very small. Insurance is one of the greatest inventions in the field of personal financial products but it becomes fatal to financial life and costly once you end up purchasing a wrong insurance solution. You should not buy endowment or ULIP policies for insurance need. You should take help of some professional to calculate your insurance needs and take term plan & accidental policy to cover them. You don’t need health insurance during your job but once you retire, you should immediately buy a decent mediclaim policy for yourself and dependants.

E. Tax Planning – It is simple for defense personal as normally they have one source of income. They make some tax saving investment – taxes are deducted from their income & finally they get the form 16. For saving tax under section 80 C they should use EPF, PPF, Mutual Funds & ELSS funds rather than putting money in expensive insurance policies. They just have to deposit form 16 to the income tax department & it’s done. Even all their lumpsum retirement benefits like gratuity, commutation of pension & provident fund are tax free which is not a case for private sector employee.

F. Estate Planning – They sometime are placed at inaccessible places – to keep financial life simple they should have a power of attorney signed in favor of one of the family members. They also work on some risky assignments to avoid some confusion in case of any negative consequence they should properly write a WILL.

Few important points that the defense person should keep in mind:

1.   You have a very high chance of getting mis-sold expensive financial products due to your transferable job & fleeting touch with the financial world. Investigate before you put your hard-earned money.

2.   For you it’s really important to have a proper written financial plan, by a Financial Planner. It will serve two purposes – first it will eliminate risk of mis-selling & second in case if you are not reachable someone else from your family, can act on that.

3.   All your investments and bank accounts should be in either or survivor basis – so even if you take some decision in far flung place it can be executed by other members.

4.   Some time you earn extra allowances due to your location or some foreign assignment – invest that amount for long term goals rather than spending it.

5.   Some cases are seen where larger sum assured for defense persons are denied – so keep adding small sum assured policies from different insurance companies.

6.   Your job is secured & has zero risk, as far as your income is concerned. So try to make your portfolio a bit aggressive, try to understand risk. I am not suggesting that you go for direct equity but start with systematic investment plan in diversified equity mutual funds.

7.   If you are still not ready to participate in mutual funds or you want to start with very small amount – you should increase your EPF contribution rather than going for insurance policies for investment purposes.

8.   There is a special provision through which, part of your salary can go directly into some investment after taking permission from you. But make sure that such amount is not going in some expensive product like ULIP or low return product like endowment plan.

As a person from the armed forces, you have some qualities like discipline, managing skills, decision making power & investigation; that can do wonders if properly used in managing your money. With these qualities in your personal financial life – along with protecting freedom of our country, you will also be achieving financial freedom.

Psychology of an Indian when it comes to Life Insurance

Why life insuranceThe moment someone wants to talk about life insurance to you, what comes to your mind?

–         Not again! I am already having many life insurance policies with me. How much more should I invest in Insurance. I need some other investment option.

–         I really don’t need insurance now, I can plan for it during the last quarter of financial year or my limit of Rs. 1 lac is over. Now I don’t need insurance policy.

–         How should I ignore this Insurance agent? Now he is going to chase me day and night

–         How much commission will this agent give back to me?

–         I am too young to have insurance

The above-mentioned are just few of those thoughts that come to an average Indian who has been asked to buy an insurance policy. The fact of the matter is that Indians have not understood purpose behind insurance.

Indians have understood Insurance as a Investment planning tool which combines the benefit of tax planning under section 80C and the maturity amount/ claim proceeds is tax free under section 10(10D).

Such policies are typically pushed by an agent,  who happens to be some relative/ friend/ acquaintance or he is some banker who chases him until he is forced/  under obligation to buy a policy. The main point is that agent is a sales person and is not really advising the client after knowing his full situation. Agents many times suggest what gives them the best commissions.

Many agents typically give the client, some part of his commission back as a sweetner because the commission in the first couple of year’s are high which the investor is ultimately bearing. The investor feels happy to have got some money back at the time of investment.

This is very normal for Indians and there is nothing which is amazing here. The sad part is that the questions which actually should arise in the mind of an investor at the time of taking insurance are just not asked. Typically, one should ask himself the following question:

–          What would happen to my family in case I am not there?

–         Are my disposable assets more than my liabilities?

–         Will my family be able to maintain the standard of living which they are living right now?

–         Will all financial goals of my family will be met if I am no more ?

These questions just don’t arise in investor’s mind. This has much to do with their  psychology. We keep reading sad stories every day in the news papers that such and such family has lost bread earner at a very young age and now deceased’s wife and small kids are left alone. Many a times, within our friends and relatives, we see that the family is in financial distress after an unforeseen bad incident happens to the bread earner.

We do feel sad and scared but after some time, these all remain just a story to us. We are just thankful that such bad incidents have not happened to us. But who knows, such an incident with you could be news for others!

This is what one needs to understand.  There are things which is beyond our control and we should be prepared for such untoward incidents and always have a PLAN B with us. By the way, most of the people don’t even have Plan A. but let us explain both

Plan A : Everything goes well and one is able to fulfill his financial goals out of his regular income and investment.

Plan B: If something goes wrong which we can’t foresee today, Insurance takes care of our Plan A.

So insurance basically is for eventuality and not for certainty.  The fact is that insurance is most needed by persons who have to travel the maximum distance and not for people who have reached their destination.

And here we would say that insurance is most needed by a youngster who has many dreams to fulfill but has miles to go. Just imagine, what would be the financial impact if a retired person dies at the age of 65 whose kids are settled with their own families. At this age, he would have achieved all he could achieve in life. Though the social vacuum cannot be compensated, financially the family is not affected.

On the contrary, just imagine what would happen to the family if a young person aged 32, dies due to unforeseen circumstance leaving behind a family of two very young kids and wife.

Now, here we would like to explain an equation which would clarify the actual need for insurance. Calculate the value of your Disposable Assets and your liabilities. Disposable assets are those assets which are not for your personal use and which can be converted into cash as they are treated as an investment by you. Your own house in which your family and you reside is an Asset but not disposable asset. Liabilities would not only include financial liabilities like home loan etc. but also social liabilities as daughter’s marriage, kids higher education, aging parents etc. Now you need insurance if “Liabilities are more than disposable assets” and one does not need insurance if “Disposable Assets are more than Liabilities”.

So when you are young, your liabilities are more or less known to you and you have yet not created disposable assets for you and your family. So one must take insurance when he is young. But what type of insurance? This is a big question. Manufactures (insurance companies) and distributors (agents) would always sell you what they want to sell. Though it sounds rude and tough on them, that’s the reality.

Which insurance policy to Buy? Term insurance is a pure insurance policy which covers your life risk at the lowest possible cost. The premium collected goes towards Mortality charges and there is no element of investment in this policy. Hence this policy is not only cheap but also helps you to buy large insurance coverage for a small amount. Insurance is a foundation of your Financial edifice. Without a proper foundation, there is always a danger of the superstructure collapsing and the entire family suffering in the bargain. We want to avoid that, don’t we?

How to Plan Marriage & Avoid Financial Shock

Earlier I thought I should keep the title to “How to Plan Your Marriage” but later I realized that it will be for very few readers. So I kept it “How to Plan Marriage “- every article that you read may not be directly helpful to you but you can always share such articles with your near ones who really need the guidance.

Festivals and marriage are two seasons we enjoy most and year end is when these two times cocktail to boost your social networking. Marriage is a new era that begins with lot of pros and cons in life. Age old rule of settling and than making a family is quite understandable. Usually in those days settling the new couple seems to be responsibility of family but now the people meet over net, marry in front of a judge, celebrate at a exotic location, disappear for a honeymoon and than appear for work making marriage a ritual. But all is not easy today. These marriages also need a lot of planning.

Let me give you a checklist for your pre-marriage Financial Planning:

CASH IS KING

No matter what, don’t run out of money. Nothing else in this article matters if you run out of money. This means know your burn rate. Get quotations from your all vendors. Plan for that extra dress or an extra day at the honeymoon or that extra lunch for friends. Plan for every weary thought you are getting through your instincts. Marriage without cash is like an opera without a lead singer.

PUT IN REAL FINANCIAL SYSTEMS FROM DAY ONE

And your day one starts the day you fixed up or you proposed or got the yes you were waiting for. Two things here. One is know the background of your spouse and his or her family. This will make you know what is expected during and after marriage. Second, get smelling over your spouse’s financial habits. For an extra spending spouse 😉 you need to plan more and interact a lot to make him/her understand the priorities. These two things will have the utmost bearing over your marriage financial plan.

MEASURE EVERYTHING

If you have real financial systems in place, you can measure everything. Be obsessive about it. Measure the cost attached to all the activities and fun you want to pursue. An extra lunch that you would host can cost you fortunes. So make a budget and cash flow for the marriage.

Also, Read –Markets are touching New High

USE YOUR FAMILY TO FUND

After my marriage I had 8 cuff-links, 4 watches and uncountable cutlery which came as gifts. Irony was that these gifts came from near family and friends. Idea is when I have that liberty in relationships to express what I need, I should express it. Family and friends would gift to show there love and blessings but you can always tell them about your requirements. Believe me they will also feel happy as gifting what a person like has s different meaning.

CHOOSE PROFESSIONALS CAREFULLY

In all marriage there is a special uncle or bhaiya who has solution to all. Moment you say ‘this needs to be taken care of’, he will dig his mobile phone from the pocket and say ‘abhi ho jayega’. And to identify such person is to watch his next step. If he is not calling anybody, this means he has no idea of doing it. Better you call and fix your requirement.

BE CAREFUL OF PERSONAL GUARANTEES

In the wake of fresh love, one of my friend committed to his bride that instead of one honeymoon, he would have 6 small honeymoons in the first year of marriage. My brave friend kept his words but now 6 banks and credit cards companies are behind him for debt recovery.

Read – Benefits of Regular Investing

FINANCE YOUR MARRIAGE

Financing from correct source is also very important. I would prefer this order. First from my parents/friends than personal loan than credit card. My payment schedule would be just opposite of the above list. The order will differ in each case but prefer where you have to pay less interest and have more number of days to repay.

FOR WHAT YOU ARE TRYING TO CREATE

Marriage besides an expensive event needs to be a fun and enjoying affair also. And fun has low correlation with money. So, before opening your wallet think about the alternatives where you get a good bargain. After all it’s your energy, involvement that would make the event more enjoyable and not the money.

DON’T TAKE ANYTHING FOR GRANTED

And last not the least; do not take anything for granted. A small mistake can cause you life grievance. Marriage is such an occasion which you and your life partner will discuss for life. A small silly slip will make you restless for life. In end a confession from my side. In my marriage I told my wife not to get the photographer from there city as it would be costly. So a lone photographer captured the stills and video of my marriage and I thought wow as I saved a good amount of money. Later on the photographer lost the tapes and we could only get the stills. My wife still hates me that in the era of technology, we only have stills to see and no video to recall the past moments. I hope she reads this and pardons me as I volunteered by writing this article to let my readers plan there marital bliss.

This article is written by guest author Madhupam Krishna. A Post Graduate in Finance, currently he heads sales function for Rajasthan for Principal PNB Mutual Fund.

Disclaimer: This post represents the opinion of its author only, and does not necessarily reflect the opinions of  the author’s employer, The Financial Literates or the other authors who write content for this Website.

All that glitters is not GOLD

People say “all that glitters is not Gold” but now-a days, Gold is glittering more and investors are flocking towards gold. You see, when a user demands a particular commodity more, manufacturer line up for selling more. It is immaterial for the manufacturers whether the product is useful for the end-user or not. They will get their share of profits by selling it and distributors will get theirs. For example, if you are suffering from stomach-ache and you buy a pill that cures head-ache, Pharma Company and the chemist are at no loss. Now when Swine flu was at its peak, people demanded mask and to meet the rising demand, many lined-up to manufacture such masks.

Some time back we wrote Should Indian’s buy Gold Now ?

Investment is not much different from above examples. Way back in 1999-2000, When internet bubble or Dot- com bubble was at its peak, mutual fund manufacturers or so called Asset Management Companies came up with Technology Fund came down to as low as Rs 2. Similar thing happened in 2007 when Infrastructure and Real Estate theme was at its peak alternate New Fund success of its first fund, yes 4 infrastructure fund from 1 AMC – because you were ready to give them money. When the bubble got burst in 2008, a plain diversified fund did not lose as much as what happened with infra-related funds.

Gold Vs Equity Performance

Now please don’t mis-understand this article as something against Mutual Funds. (Read Understanding Mutual Fund with different Prospective). It is same with even Insurance companies. In 2005 to 2007, they were selling ULIPs as market was in Bull Run and more than 90% of their new premium came from ULIP. In the start of 2008 when markets were at their peak, you were sold Money Plus or Future Plus and in the year 2009 when the markets were at the lowest, you were offered Jeeven Asstha which guaranteed that your money would be safe and would get doubled in 10 years. The fact of the matters is that if you would have invested in Money plus in 2009, your money would have got doubled in less than a year.

Read How LIC Wealth Plus was mis-sold

What we are conveying is that manufacturers and distributors only want to sell whether or not it is useful for you and in case of investments, since majority of the investors make investment based on previous past performance and based on herd mentality, manufactures and distributors sell so called the TREND OF THE SEASON.

The same theory is being cooked in case of GOLD now days. Mutual Funds are launching GOLD related products Gold ETFs, International Gold Funds, GOLD based Asset allocation fund one after the other as GOLD is in demand. We all remember about Equities- December 2007 of Extreme optimism and February 2009 of extreme pessimism – what was the outcome when people took decision based on herd mentality. In 2007, they lost money and in 2009, they never made money. Today, everyone is ready to convince you that gold price will only go higher but we just want to say – gold should be small part of asset allocation and the reason of buying gold should not be rise in price. We will just give a single suggestion keep your head cool before taking investment decisions.

Research on investor psychology

The following are Google trend charts. It analyzes a portion of Google web searches to compute how many searches have been done for the terms you enter, relative to the total number of searches done on Google over time. This clearly shows that people start searching for investment which have gone higher in recent past. Check 2nd Graph of Mutual funds which peaked in December 2007 when equity markets were also at their peak. No one was searching for Mutual funds in the end of 2008 or start of 2009 when actually it was the best time to invest. Upto 2007 end when it was best time to invest in gold but no one was searching for it but when price went up, the number of searched went up.

At the end, a famous quote by legendary investor Warren Buffet- “When all the people are thinking is same direction, No one is thinking.”

So do you think one should buy gold now ?

How Agents are Mis-selling these days

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We started this blog on 18th July 2008 just 12 days before ban on entry load in mutual funds. Our first article was Mis-selling month – it was very clear that there is rampant mis-selling in insurance and other financial products. There is no surprise that JULY 2008 generated highest ever gross selling figures in equity schemes in mutual fund industry. Last month I met one investor who was still paying entry load on his SIPs & STPs. In last 18 months his agent never told him that he can discontinue the SIPs & restart them again.

Agents have become part of the problem and not the part of solution. You would be shocked by reading my last sentence… but it’s true.

The philosophy of Angel and Satan also exists in financial business. And in practical when it comes to intermediaries, rarely you find an angel by your side. Today we would try to figure out how different financial intermediary and manufacturers are playing games with innocent investors. This time we would focus on latest negative trends in financial industry which are used to make investors fool.

What is the Big News – Changes in Life Insurance Industry

At the outset, you must know that regulators in financial industry have started working in the direction to make users of product more beneficial and to make sure that the mis-selling tactics both by agents and manufacturers can be curbed. This all started with SEBI’s order to make Mutual Fund a “No Entry Load” product from August 1, 2009. Now if you invest in any mutual fund, you shall not be charged any entry load which used to be as high as 3% in equity funds. The results of such regulations are clearly visible as distributors of mutual fund have started advising investors for long term wealth creation rather than churning their portfolio. A lot of emphasis is there to make investors understand the benefits of Systematic Investment Plan (SIP).

Another impact of SEBI’s regulation was that Insurance regulator IRDA was also put under pressure to work for policy holders rather than manufacturers and intermediary. As we had written earlier that Insurance is the most expensive way to invest. The reason was the exuberant commissions that Agents were getting by deducting money from your premiums.

Read more articles related to Mis-Selling

Earlier, commission of agents were as high as 40 to 50% of your first years premium and in later years, he used to get very less commission on renewals. This was the reason that many of the investors in insurance always are in search of their agents after the payment of first premium. Now IRDA have tweaked the way expenses will be charged in ULIPs from “front loaded” to “staggered approach” manner.

Now Insurance companies are trying to find out new ways to charge investors and already they have raised the rates of MORTALITY CHARGES. Table below provides you the charges on mortality before and after 1 September, 2010.

Read How to exit Mis-sold insurance Policies

ULIPs will now be sold as a long term product but for keeping your investment profile simple and easy, we still recommend that the Investment portfolio should be separate from Insurance and for insurance need one should take Term Insurance only. The changes in Regulation came into effect from September 1, 2010.

So your insurance agent should have sold you policies before 1st September 2010. If you would have bought insurance policy after September 1, you would be more beneficial, but mind you, insurance agents and bankers have sold insurance in the month of August so aggressively as if after August no one can buy insurance.

What are Insurance Agents now advising?

Agents are now giving emphasis on TRADITIONAL product of Insurance like Endowment, Money Back etc which still offers them a good commission of 25-40%. Make no mistake, it is much better to invest in PF/PPF rather than taking such traditional policy. The returns from traditional policy will nowhere be close to that offered by PF.

Mis-selling on Mutual Fund side

We believe that Mutual Funds are best way to invest but even here many distributors take investors for ride. In Mutual Fund side, Monthly Income Plans are sold aggressively by distributors and within one year the overall AUM in MIPs have increased more than 8 times; not because the product has suddenly become so good for investors but the reason is the sheer greed of agents who now get more commission in MIPs than in Equity Funds. Systematic Transfer Plan from MIP is another way to take investors for a ride. Also year end is approaching, so soon you will find your agent asking you to invest a big amount in one go as he may be receiving a foriegn trip on your business.

You can read Mis-Selling tricks by Mutual Fund & Insurance Agents

What Bankers are doing

Bankers and other intermediary are selling Portfolio Management Products (PMS), other private Equity Products, Structured Products etc. Such products are not regulated by any regulator and again investors are advised to take informed decision before they become victim of some mis-selling tricks. Often investors are asked to take loan on their endowment policies and take another ULIP policy. This means that investor starts leveraging on their assets.

GOLD

Now a day’s gold is on run and we come across many investors also asking about it. We believe that Gold needs to part of portfolio as an insurance and not as investment. But since this asset class is rising, Mutual Funds are coming with Gold ETF one after one. Gold loans are creating another Bubble as it happened in Sub-Prime crisis of US, where people borrowed by pledging their real estate and they thought that real estate can never go down. Please beware of Gold Loans as it may result in DEBT TRAP.

IPO

So have you got the forms – the great Indian IPO mania is back 😉 Investor think that IPOs are good Investment Vehicle but in reality they are against investor’s interest as they arrive in market when promoters are sure that they will fetch good premium.

Don’t listen to us Just read what Mr Bhave(SEBI Chairman) is saying:

“In a bid to maximize return of promoters, investment bankers are not looking at the interests of investors. “

As Warren Buffet says, investors need to do very little things right as long as he/she avoids big mistakes. We just want the readers of TFL to be aware of what is going on and how NOT to make mistakes.

Have you ever faced mis-selling? Don’t tell me your answer is NO.

Retirement Planning Guide (With My Doordarshan Videos)

Retirement Planning is one of the biggest components of Financial Planning – it’s the only common goal that everyone shares be it rich, poor, salaried or businessman. This article will work like Retirement Planning Guide to both young & retired people.

Check – Best Retirement Plan

From last one year I was writing for various newspapers in regular basis but getting a call from TV show was remarkable. There is a big difference between print & electronic media. Writing for Newspaper is like practicing shooting for Olympics & suddenly someone offers you that since you are a good shooter so why don’t you help our security forces on border.

Last Month I was invited to Mumbai for “Money Plant Show” a MCX- SX & Doordarshan nation-wide drive for Financial literacy & the episode was “Financial Planning: Retirement” . I was bit nervous as they shared the list of participants who participated in earlier episodes.

Dignitaries participated in earlier episodes included Mr. G. N. Bajpai, Former Chairman, SEBI; Mr. M. R. Mayya Former Executive Directors, BSE, Mr. A. P, Kurian, Chairman, AMFI, Mr. Shailesh Haribhakti, Chairman, BDO India, Mr. Vivek Kanwar, Managing Director, Aditya Birla Money etc.

My condition was same as above mentioned shooter, as here anchor was constantly firing questions. Adding to the nervousness I even had Eye Flu (conjunctivitis) on that day, it was really painful sitting there but everything went very well & episode was recorded without any cut or retake. This was telecast on 16th October 2010 on DD1 (Doordarshan National )

I have tried to make a little transcript around the videos (actually these are not answers but few points that are covered in answer) so that you can understand about retirement & financial Planning (I think they have covered all possible questions). So let’s begin.

Anchor is Mr Shailesh Pethe  – Panelist are Hemant Beniwal & Manikaran Singhal.

First Video – On Youtube

Must Read –Are you ready for your Retirement

1. Hemant – What factors have made retirement a challenge ?

  • Lack of financial planning (must listen to this – when we talk about finance it’s not only investments)
  • Low pension or no pension income
  • Shift from typical joint family structure
  • Rise in medical expenses

2. Why is financial planning necessary for retired citizens?

  • Rationale
  • Significance

3. What are the benefits of financial planning for old age people?

  • Availability of funds at right time
  • Financing immediate and special needs (including medical)
  • Financing future goals
  • Financial independence

4. Hemant – Who can plan for retirement and what are the benefits?

5. How can retired investors define their investment objective? what should they keep in mind while setting their goals?

  • Goals & investment objective
  • How to design

Must Check-When you are not ready for your retirement

Second Video – On Youtube

6. Why is safety important while investing for retired citizens?

  • Equity & real estate are volatile
  • Safety Vs inflation Hedge

7. Hemant – What are the various investment avenues available in the market which would suit the investor’s objective?

  • There are not many products available after retirement but for accumulation, we have a lot of products
  • Don’t Mix Insurance & Investment products – Insurance plans for investment purpose are very expensive & lack transparency

Must Read -5 Reasons you should not Retire

8. What investment style should old age citizens adopt to achieve their investment objective?

  • Should be conservative to moderate.

9. What factors should be kept in mind while allocating funds?

  • Risk tolerance of investor
  • Depends on your status
  • Products like MIP

Must Check- Is Rs 1 Crore enough to Retire

10. Hemant – Whom can they approach in case of investment advice?

Oh! He asked me this – even I asked this question to myself when I started my Financial Planning Firm. So answer was already in my mind. People really liked my answer so I thought of writing an article on the same.

I wrote “How to choose your Financial Advisor” & this got published in leading Hindi Business daily “Business Bhaskar” on 13th Nov. 2010

Must Read –I am too Young to Plan my Retirement is a Myth

How one can find a proper Financial Advisor?

Let me share few points which will help you to find financial advisor. List can be long … but let me keep it simple & stick to top 3 points, which merit attention.

  • He should give Comprehensive Advice
  • His advice should be Independent – His ethics should guide him rather than his boss, company & commissions.
  • He should be Competent – Have you ever tried to find out that what is the education, knowledge & experience of the advisor who is guiding you?

Finding a good advisor is time consuming but this will decide your financial success.

You can read the complete article here.

11. How can retired investors reduce their tax payment on total and investment income? Do they get any special tax treatment?

  • Tax slab
  • Dividend Income is tax-free
  • Systematic Withdrawal

Must-Read – Retirement Planning Vs Child Future Planning

Third Video – On Youtube

12. What other benefits are they entitled to as a senior citizen on India?

Must Check-10 big Lies that skew Retirement Planning

13. Hemant – How can old age individuals achieve their goals?

  • Meeting medical expenditure
  • Financial marriage ceremony of children (don’t be emotional)
  • Financial Family vacation (conservative vacations)

14. Can retired citizens avail loans

  • Not Advisable
  • Reverse Mortgage

15. Hemant – What precautions should retired investors take while planning their finances?

  • Accept lifestyle changes
  • Don’t spend lavishly
  • Equity experience
  • Regular Income Vs Growth
  • Medical Emergency

Must Read- What should Women know about Retirement

16. Hemant – It is heard often that many agents take undue advantage (Mis – selling) of old age citizens to earn high commission and in the process these investors end up losing out their hard earned savings. How can investor’s safe guard themselves to avoid financial losses?

I don’t know how I spoke or how were the expressions – I leave that for your comments but I really spoke my heart out.

If you have any questions, concerns regarding Retirement Planning please feel free to ask.

What is equity ? Understand its right meaning to reap the benefit

What is equity ? This question is running in every Indian investor’s mind. Why? because equities have done very well in past 10, 20, 30 years but investors are not able to make money. What is equity – a share, market,  a fund or an asset class? Yes in this article we will discuss everything related to equity that will help you in creating wealth.  Few months back we wrote this article in Hindi and we were flooded with mails & messages that we share this article in English. So read it to understand the right meaning of equity & reap the benefit.

If as a Financial Advisor we ask you to invest in Equities or Equity oriented Mutual fund, the typical reaction is – We don’t want risk in our investment but we want decent returns too. In some previous topic, we have discussed that importance of high rate of return and its impact over long run. Even though equities share have given the wonderful returns over long run not only in India but world over, Indians are not really comfortable investing their money in equities. Less than 6% of their investments are into this asset class whether directly or indirectly.

Just to give you comparison how equities have delivered returns over last 30 year, look at the graph below. The graph shows you how Rs. 100 invested in different asset class fared over last 30 years ending March 31st 2010.

What is Equity? Lets understand, what exactly Equity is all about

Equity is nothing but ownership; ownership in Business. For Ex. if you hold 10 shares of  XYZ Company out of total 1000 shares floated by the company – you are 1% owner in XYZ’s business. So if XYZ will make profit you will get your share from dividends and price appreciation but if company makes losses your capital will go down(that will be reflected in stock price). A general question – If we ask you to start your own new business, how much time do you think you would like to give before you start thinking whether its really worth it or not- 1 Week, 1 month, 1 year. You  must be thinking that we are joking. Ideally we should think for some long time when we enter in any legitimate business. But this common principle we don’t really apply when we invest in other’s business which can be done through shares/equities.

When we buy equities, we start looking at the price next day or next week. For many who call themselves investors, long run is 1 month. But do you think the management of the business of which we buy shares really looks at their business growth in such a short period.

Must Read – Should I Invest in LIC IPO and Other IPOs

In equities, the rule of Farming applies

This basic rules states that:-

1. You first have to sow a seed.

2. Keep watering it for it to grow.

3. Wait for some time with patience.

4. With passage of time, you will get fruits of your hard work and patience.

But when it comes to equities, we think that HAATHON MEIN HI SARSO UGTI HAI. We want good return in short time. How many of us really think of equities for long horizon.?We keep gold for generations. Grandparents go for bank fixed deposits for their grand children, but no one invests in share of banks, say HDFC Bank for their kid’s marriage. And, no one plans to invest in equity mutual fund for their retirement.

Fundamental Investing & Speculation

Equity give you two kind of return, one is speculative and another is fundamental growth. 95% of the investors in shares are here for speculative gain, that is gain  from the short term price movement of shares. They start TIMING THE MARKET rather giving TIME IN THE MARKET. This approach for short term gains is the real cause of loss. Investment for long run is not only rewarding but also beats inflation by a good margin and creates wealth. Now think of Indian business or Indian economy for next month, you will be clueless but think of it for next 5 years, 10 years. We know that you are aware of the answer.

Risk Involvement

Now people call equity risky. Unfortunately risk is not understood by many investors. In short run, risk is in volatility of price of underlying asset i.e., how much it can rise and fall given a period of time. But in long run risk is not volatility but the risk is to maintain the purchasing power of your money. Look at the price of petrol in last 30 years(in chart 1) and then compare it with your return in FDs, gold, Endowment or Money back Plans.

Equity Investment

A picture that explains equity as a long term asset. I have blurred this image because dates are meaningless in a long history but just to share first part is IT bubble of 2000. Market went down by 55% (that’s too much) but if you look the second part – the tech meltdown also looks normal. Focus on long term.

Equity Long Term

 

Why people don’t make money in Equities?

looking at the graph above, it must be clear that equities do give returns. But the question still remains unanswered that if Equity gives returns, Why people don’t make money out of equities. The answer lies in their EMOTIONS. The two basic emotions Greed & Fear will make you feel comfortable when the markets are going up and feel disheartened when the market goes down, even though one really don’t need to sell at that time. Always remember that equities is a long term investment and after you invest if emotions are making you restless, think about forgetting this investment. Checking daily profit or loss and anticipating the future growth has no meaning and is futile exercise.

 Picture can speak 100 words 🙂

In the end, invest in equities, but as a long term investor and partner the Indian Growth Story.

Sensex PE Ratio – is Stock Market Overvalued?

PE RatioSensex PE Ratio is one of the most basic & fundamental things that is seen by investors while investing in equities. Sensex PE Ratio can tell you the valuation of the market (overvalued, undervalued, or rightly valued). In this article we will share why P/E(Price/Earnings) Ratio is Important for every investor, how PE for the single stock is calculated, how SENSEX PE is calculated, what was the average Sensex PE in past (long term charts) & where you did mistakes and you can also find the current SENSEX PE.

Understanding Value of Equity Markets

One of the greatest Investor Warren Buffet says “The stock market is filled with people who know the price of everything but the value of nothing” What does he wants to convey when he says PRICE and VALUE and is there any difference between these two.

Let me give you an example to explain this: would you buy a simple new pen of REYNOLDS for Rs. 1000. I am sure you would not. But if I ask you to buy the same for Rs. 1, would you be interested in it. Probably YES. Now here is the difference between PRICE and VALUE. Both Rs.1000 and Re. 1 are price of that pen quoted by the seller but your decision to buy that pen or not to buy the pen is not based on the price but what VALUE you derive from that. At 1000, the pen looks costly but at Re. 1 it looks cheap. Value is the utility that you derive by paying a price to a particular thing. This is why we say at times, Ye CHEEZ AAP MEHENGI LE AAYE ya fir YE CHEEZ AAP SASTI LE AAYE. But in the case of investments, how do you ascertain its VALUE.

Read – Types of Indian Investor

Value of Investment

Utility in investment is calculated by the return it would generate in one year’s time and this is known as PE or Price to Earnings. PE is nothing but the price that an investor is ready to pay to earn Re.1 every year. To make it simple, if you have invested Rs. 100 in a FD which is giving you an interest of 8%, at the end of the year you would get Rs. 8. In other words, to earn Rs. 8, you need to invest Rs. 100 or to earn Re. 1, you need to invest Rs. 12.5 (100/8). And hence the PE of bank FD is 12.5. Now if the interest rate had been 12%, the PE would have been 8.33. Now if PE is low, you expect higher return and if PE is high, you expect lower return.

Is the stock market something different? It is a place where shares are bought and sold. The seller demands a price that is quoted on Screen but do you know the VALUE. For example, let say Reliance is quoted at Rs. 1000 per share. Now, this is the price but what is the VALUE. Not many would have the answer. So we all understand the price in the stock market as it is quoted before us, but we seldom understand its VALUE.

Must Read- What is Sensex and Nifty

Calculated PE of any stock

To understand the value of the share market, we need to understand the PE of SENSEX. But let’s first try to understand how P/E is calculated for a single stock.

PE=Price (MPS-Market Price Per Share )/Earning (EPS-Earning Per Share)

To understand PE, we need to first understand the Price and the earning per share (EPS) of stock for this we take the example of Infosys. The current Market Price of Infosys is Rs. 3000. Now, what about earning per share? If we divide the Total Net profit (past 12 months) of Infosys by the number of shares it has, we will get what is known as Earning per share so the EPS of Infosys comes out to be 111. Now we can divide Price by EPS, we will get Infosys current PE that is 27(3000/111). In simple words, PE is nothing but the price that investors are ready to pay to earn Re. 1 every year. So in the case of Infosys people are ready to pay Rs27 to earn Rs. 1 every year.

Must-Read- Health insurance for diabetics

BSE SENSEX PE Ratio equity

To understand Sensex PE Ratio, we need the price and the earnings of Sensex. Sensex is nothing but price movement of 30 big companies in India like RIL, Infosys, TCS, Maruti etc. Price of Sensex is nothing but what is quoted before us – Sensex at 20000 or Sensex at 21000. Now, what about earnings? Now, these companies are working for profits which are meant for owners of the company. In the case of companies, owners are shareholders. Now if we divide the Total Net profit of the company by the number of shares it has, we will get is known as Earning Per Share (EPS). Now if we add the EPS (according to weightage – for eg. weightage of reliance in Sensex is 11% its current EPS is 53 so 5.83 will be used similarly for other companies) of all 30 companies, we get the EPS of Sensex. The combined EPS of Sensex is the earning which we were looking at. Now PE of Sensex is nothing but Level of Sensex/EPS.

Must Read – Learn about Financial Goals 

SENSEX PE Chart

Sensex PE Ratio

In the above chart Blue Bars are showing Sensex PE (right-hand axis) from 1999 till date – March 2000 it reached to 30 & then came back to 13 in Jan 2002. In 2007 it was again closed to 29 & in starting of 2009 it went close to 10 (a time that was missed by maximum investors & even so-called experts). Average Sensex PE from 1990 to 2010 remained close to 18. Current Sensex PE is close to 24.15(when the market touched 21000). Blue Dotted Line shows the real movement on Sensex (left-hand axis). As we have seen that average PE in India was close to 18 so the green ribbon(line) shows if the market would have remained close to that PE. Red ribbon shows undervaluation (14 PE) & Purple ribbon overvaluation or stretched valuation. Currently, it’s above purple ribbon (stretched valuation) but that doesn’t mean it should have to fall now – we have already seen that in 2000 & 2007 it was close to 30 & in 1994 it even touched 50  before it came down. Nobody can time market this article is there is to share the concept.

Don’t do this mistake (Click on the Cartoon to enlarge) 🙁

PE Ratio Sensex

Earnings (EPS) of Sensex

You shall be surprised to know that the combined earnings of Sensex companies in 1992 was 80, in 2000 was 240 & now 860. This EPS growth directly convert into growth of Sensex from 1992 (Sensex was close to 2000) till today EPS has grown 10 times & our Sensex has grown same 10 times. Now Indian businesses are growing and so as the profitability of the companies. In this case, EPS is bound to go up and so as Sensex. I don’t want to comment on where sensex could be in next 1 month of 6 months as in short term anything could happen but with reasonable confidence, I can surely say that in 5 years down the line, Sensex will be much higher than where we are today. Don’t listen to analysts just follow basic rule of earning growth.

You can check the latest Current Sensex PE Ratio here.

Few more PE Concepts

The concept we have read above in technical language is called trailing (past) PE. There are a few other types of PEs- Forward PE, Rolling PE & Diluted PE. Other than trailing PE (normal PE) only Forward PE is heard by you on daily basis (Thanks to our so-called analysts & investment gurus –

Read Stop Fooling Investor.

Forward Sensex PE

There is not a major difference in the method of calculation – in normal PE past 12 months EPS is taken & in Forward, PE future expected PE will be taken. For example, if current PE is 23 & some analyst believes that EPS of Sensex companies should increase by 20% – he will say next year EPS (current EPS 862) will be 1035 so 1 year forward PE is 19.6. There is nothing wrong in doing it but in a bull market when the expectation of growth is very high this can give some deceiving figures. Even analyst Some time quotes 2 years forward PE.

Historic 1 year Forward PE Chart ( from 1990)

Sensex PE Ratio Chart

PE is a very relative term it will be different for different markets, sectors, stocks – it actually shows investor expectations. PE also reflects the strength & future prospectus of the company. It should definitely be considered before making a lumpsum equity investment but it should not be the only criteria. We request all readers to participate in equities through the Mutual Fund route rather than going directly.

Please let me know do you liked this article & would you like to learn some more basic & important concepts like the Sensex PE ratio. Feel free to ask any question other than which stock should you invest in. 🙂

The Great Indian IPO Mania is Back

The total value of money applied in Coal India IPO was more than total Equity Asset Under Management of Indian Mutual Funds. 🙁

In the film Gajni, Aamir Khan Suffered from a disease – SHORT TERM MEMORY LOSS. Many a times, I feel most of us suffer from this syndrome. You look at media, they highlight a matter till the time we are interested and once we start forgetting the same, the news shift its pages from front page to middle pages and then one day, it all together vanishes.

It is humans who are investors as well and investors also suffers from short term memory loss problem. They forget what their mistake last time and again they make the mistake which they earlier made and then looses the money.

Something similar is now happening in IPO market. IPO stands for Initial Public Offer. It is a process where the main owner of business  or promoter dilutes his share and goes to the public at large to sell it. The buyers are institutions both domestic and foreign, High Net Worth Individuals and Retail investors. The seller appoints investment bankers so that they can market their issue and these investment bankers get good commissions to make sure that the people buy share through IPO route.

Now, Try and understand what happens.

  1. The seller is not interested whether you are getting a right product at a right price. He is interested only in selling his stake. He is not doing charity but business and hence would like to sell at high price only.
  2. IPOs comes only when the markets are doing well and sentiments are positive. In 2006-2007, markets were flooded with IPOs and in 2008, there were hardly any. Now once again IPO are back. Investors, especially retail investors, often invest when everyone would have the money and they think that they are left out and hence enter into the market by seeing others.
  3. Investor often thinks that it is good way to make QUICK money and gets attracted towards it. It is true that few of the companies who came up with an IPO have done well but it is not easy to pick the right ones. Do you remember Reliance Power IPO in Jan 2008. Those were crazy days and everyone thought that by investing Rs.25000, they will get Rs. 10000 in next 21 days. Thousands of investors are still wondering what happened to them. People who never looked beyond post office  and Bank FDs went and bought Reliance Power. Now this is what we call HERD MENTALITY. Investors often become victim and they feel secured in following what others are doing.

Reliance Power Price Chart(Source: Economic Times)

Now, those days are back again in IPO, people are showing tremendous interest in IPOs once again. Career Point, Eros Entertainment etc were oversubscribed hugely. One should not just buy because everyone buying and buying for immediate Pop-Up gain could be risky. Moneycontrol.com has now come up with a new tab “IPO”; all business channels are talking about IPOs: FM radio are playing IPO ads. Well it is just suggesting that more and more people are interested in it. Coal India issue is on the cards and people are again showing tremendous interest. I am not commenting anything on that IPO and what return it may offer, all I am Saying that people are lining up once again . Just remember what happened with NHPC IPO, another PSU which came in August 2009 at a price of Rs.36 and that time markets were 15000. Today markets are 20000 and the company is trading at 32.

Often people say that we are safe as they are selling their application in GREY Market. But don’t forget R- Power. Brokers went broke and investors lost heavily.

Check – Mutual Fund NFO

Now Should you actually apply to an IPO or not?

Answer to this question is simple- USE common Sense.

  • If you were to buy an item from market, you would like to buy the same at reasonable price and not at high price.
  • You would not buy only because everyone else is buying
  • If you really need to buy it but do not know about the item, you will take someone along with you whom you consider more Knowledgeable in that item. In this case, Hire a expert or invest through Mutual Fund who would know better than you.

Read – Best Mutual Fund SIP

Understand what you are buying

What people generally don’t understand when applying for IPO is that they are actually buying BUSINESS as someone wants to sell a part of his BUSINESS. So before investing in IPO, you should know one thing very clear that you should know that business. If you don’t know business, you should not invest. You must be sure that the business you are buying is a growing business and you would benefit being a partner to this business. Business investments should not be done for short term. Just don’t go by what other are doing, what advertisement are inviting you, use your common sense. It should not happen that you land up buying one of the most well advertised issues like Reliance Power(-42% even after considering Bonus), DLF(-30%) or Future Capital(-60%) which are still below their issue price.

Aam Aadmi Question – Mutual Fund Or Direct Equity

Few more Facts about Indian IPO

  1. SEBI hikes retail investor limit in IPO to Rs 2 Lakh
  2. Reliance Power IPO got 46 Lakh Application(Highest ever for any Indian IPO)
  3. Performance of IPOs in October 2010 – out of 13 IPO listings, 8 IPOs are in negative territory.
  4. Close to 40 IPOs are filed with SEBI in Last 2 Months
  5. 116 IPOs were listed in between August 2007 to August 2010 – 62% of these IPO are still under there sale price.
  6. BSE IPO Index(Ya there is a Index which tracks performance of IPOs) has given 14.5% return in last 1 year; in same period Sensex has given return of 19.5%
  7. In 1993-94 witnessed more than 600 IPO listings – most of the companies are no more there.
  8. 48% of the companies that were listed in 2000 are vanished.(90% of the IT companies that were listed in this period are delisted)
  9. More than 50% of the companies that were listed in between 1990 & 2000 are no more there.

Investor think that IPOs are good Investment Vehicle but in reality they are against investor’s interest as they arrive in market when promoters are sure that they will fetch good premium.

Don’t listen to us Just read what Mr Bhave(SEBI Chairman) is saying:

“In a bid to maximize return of promoters, investment bankers are not looking at the interests of investors. “

Someone again asked me what does IPO stands for, I quipped

“Its Probably Overpriced”.